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Use and Verification of ECMWF products in Greece
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| Use and Verification of ECMWF products in Greece
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Hellenic National Meteorological
Service
Division of Research and Numerical
Prediction
by
T. Andreadis, E. Avgoustoglou, G. Galanis, V. Fragouli
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| 1. Summary of major highlights.
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| The products of ECMWF are widely used in HNMS both as main
tools by the forecasters and as initial conditions for the local Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Here, the verification results for the output
of ECMWF model are presented in contrast to the results of two local NWP models
for five major stations and for the following parameters: 2 meter temperature,
10 meter wind, total precipitation, geopotential height at 500 and 1000 hPa, as
well as temperature and wind speed components at 500, 850 and 1000 hPa. In
addition, verification results of the models concerning the 10m wind of three
typical stations in the Aegean Sea are presented. It is worthy to note that the
local forecast values are obtained by an interpolation of the direct model
outputs based on the five nearest grid points. The locations of the stations in
study are indicated in the map bellow:
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| 2. Objective Verification.
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| 2.1. Direct ECMWF model outputs.
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(i) In the free atmosphere.
In this
paragraph, we present the Anomaly Correlation and the Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) of geopotential height at 500 and 1000 hPa, the RMSE of temperature at
500 and 850 hPa as well as the RMSE of wind components at 850 and 1000 hPa
concerning the outputs of the model of ECMWF in contrast to the Analysis
values. Moreover, the results obtained are compared with the analogous ones of
the local weather prediction model SKIRON (for details concerning the model see
2.2).
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| 10 ΔΙΑΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΑ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΝ!!!
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(ii) Local weather parameters.
The 2-meter temperature forecast is verified against observations
at a time period of 6 hours beginning at the 00:00 UTC analysis results of
ECMWF. Basic statistical measures, such as Biases, Mean Absolute Error,
Standard Deviations, Root Mean Square Errors as well as the Possibility of
successful forecasts (i.e. ±2o C), are presented:
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| 3 ΠΙΝΑΚΕΣ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΝ!!!
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| The same results are also graphically presented in paragraph
2.2 while being compared with the corresponding results of the local numerical
weather prediction models that are currently used in HNMS.
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| 2.2. ECMWF model output compared to other NWP models.
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Two local weather prediction models are currently running in
HNMS:
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The hydrostatic model SKIRON which runs with a
resolution of 0.1o at the area specified by the corners: (13E,44N), (31E,44N),
(31E,34N), (13E,34N). SKIRON is initialized with boundary conditions and
analysis from the model of ECMWF and gives forecast up to 72 hours.
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The non-hydrostatic COSMO Local Model (LM), which
covers the area from 16.125E to 28E and from 33.25N to 45.75N with resolution
0.1250. It is initialized with boundary conditions and analysis from the global
model of DWD.
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| In the next two tables, we present the percentage for the
successful prediction of the total precipitation as an event concerning three
different periods: Those of 24 hour forecast, 48 hour forecast and 72 hour
forecast:
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| 2 ΠΙΝΑΚΕΣ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΝ!!!
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| On the other hand, the next five diagrams represent the
evolution in time (beginning with the analysis at 00:00 UTC and proceeding with
a time step of 6 hours) of the mean absolute error of 2 meter temperature’s
forecast obtained by the model of ECMWF as well as by the local NWP models
SKIRON and LM:
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| 5 ΔΙΑΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΑ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΝ!!!
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| Wind roses of 10m wind of the ECMWF model, SKIRON model and
observations are presented bellow. The results are those of 12:00 UTC and
correspond to 24 hour forecast. The wind speed is given in meters per second.
In the center of each wind rose we give the percentage of events where the wind
speed was bellow 1,5 m/sec.
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| 2 ΣΧΗΜΑΤΙΚΟΙ ΠΙΝΑΚΕΣ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΝ!!!
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